The use of data-based predictors–risk and protective factors-is also grounded in the successful public health approach to prevention of heart and lung disease. Americans of all ages can list many of the risk factors for heart disease–smoking, high-fat diet, high blood pressure, obesity, family history. We also know that regular, aerobic exercise is a protective factor for heart disease.

Research has identified twenty risk factors that are reliable predictors of adolescent substance abuse, delinquency, school dropout, teen pregnancy and violence. These risk factors are based on a review of over 30 years of research across a variety of disciplines and are subject to the most rigorous research criteria. Figure 2 shows the nineteen risk factors and the problem behaviors each predicts. Risk factors used in CTC must have been shown, in multiple longitudinal studies, as reliable predictors of one of the five adolescent health and behavior problems. CTC provides tools for measuring levels of risk factors, selecting priority risk factors on which a strategic plan can be focused, and then tracking progress toward desired changes in those priority risk factors.

RISK FACTORS

 

Community Risk Factors

Availability of drugs:  The more available alcohol and other drugs are in a community, the higher the risk of young people abusing drugs in that community.  Perceived availability of drugs is also associated with increased risk.  In schools where children just think that drugs are more available, a higher rate of drug abuse occurs.

Availability of firearms:  Research has shown an increase in the availability of firearms since the 1950’s.  There has been a corresponding increase in the number of crimes, including homicides, committed by adolescents.  It is important to note that we are not speaking of the hunter’s guns; we are speaking directly to the firearms available to youth who then go on to commit crimes.

Community laws and norms favorable toward problem behaviors:  Community norms -- the attitudes and policies a community holds in relation to the problem behaviors -- are communicated in a variety of ways; through laws and written policies, informal social practices and through the expectations parents and other members of the community have of children.

Media portrayals of violence:  Research over the last three decades shows a clear correlation between media portrayals of violence the development of aggressive and violent behavior in youth.

 

Transitions and mobility:  Even normal transitions can predict increases in problem behaviors.  When children move from elementary school to middle or junior high, significant increases in problem behaviors may occur.  Communities characterized by high rates of mobility appear to be linked to an increased risk of problem behaviors.

Low neighborhood attachment and community disorganization:  Where there is little attachment to the community, where the rates of vandalism are high and where there is low surveillance of public places, more problem behaviors occur.  This condition is not limited to low income neighborhoods; it can also be found in more affluent areas.  The primary consideration here is whether or not people feel they are capable of making a change in their lives.

Extreme economic deprivation:  Children who live in deteriorating, crime-ridden neighborhoods where there is little hope for a better future are more likely to become engaged in problem behaviors.  Also, children who have behavior and other adjustment problems early in life, and who come from economically deprived areas, are more likely to become involved in problem behaviors later on.

Family Risk Factors

 

Family history of the problem behavior:  This risk factor applies to both male and female children, and for both there appears to be an environmental as well as a genetic component.  The risk of alcoholism, for instance, appears to be twofold for children born into an alcoholic family.

Family management problems: Poor family management practices include a lack of clear expectations for behavior, failure of parents to monitor their children, and excessively severe or inconsistent punishment.

Family conflict:  Persistent, serious conflict between caregivers or between caregivers and children appears to increase risks for children raised in these families.  Conflict between family members appears to be more important than the family structure.

Favorable parental attitudes and involvement in problem behavior:  If parents are involved in one of the problem behaviors or are tolerant of the children’s involvement in such behaviors, children are much more likely to become involved in those problem behaviors.  The risk is further increased if the parent involves the child in their behavior; i.e., asking a child to light a cigarette or get a beer from the refrigerator.

School Risk Factors

Academic failure beginning in late elementary school:  This increases the risk in all five problem behaviors.  It appears that the experience of failure -- not necessarily ability -- increases the risk of problem behaviors.

Lack of commitment to school:  This refers to the young person who has ceased to see the role of student as a viable one. 

Individual/Peer Risk Factors

 

Early and persistent antisocial behavior:  Boys who are aggressive in Grades K-3 or who have trouble controlling impulses are at higher risk for alcohol and other drug use, delinquency and violent behavior.  When a boy’s aggressive behavior in the early grades is combined with isolation, withdrawal, hyperactivity or attention deficit disorder, there is an even greater risk of problems in adolescence.  This risk factor also includes persistent antisocial behavior in early adolescence, such as misbehaving in school and getting into fights with other children.  Both boys and girls who engage in these behaviors in early adolescence are at increased risk for all five problem behaviors.  This problem behavior used to be listed in the school domain, but was moved to this domain because, while some studies relied partially on school reporting to measure early antisocial behavior, most studies describe antisocial behavior as a range of behaviors that could occur either in or out of school.

Rebelliousness:  Young people who feel they are not part of society, are not bound by rules, don’t believe in trying to be successful or responsible, or who take an actively rebellious stance toward society are at greater risk.  This risk factor used to be known as “alienation and rebelliousness.”  Alienation is the opposite of bonding, a fundamental component of the Social Development Strategy.  Bonding is measured in the CTC Youth Survey.  Alienation was dropped from the risk factor to reduce duplication between risk and protective factors, and to give greater emphasis to rebelliousness at a distinct risk factor.

Friends who engage in the problem behavior (Delinquent friends):  This is one of the most consistent predictors research has found.  Young people who associate with peers who engage in problem behaviors are much more likely to engage in that behavior.

Gang Involvement:  Recent research suggests that children who have delinquent friends are more likely to use alcohol and other drugs and to engage in violent or delinquent behavior than children who do not have delinquent friends.  But the influence of gang involvement on alcohol and other drug use, delinquency and violence exceeds the influence of delinquent friends on these problem behaviors.  Gang members are even more likely than children who have delinquent friends to use alcohol and other drugs, and to engage in delinquent or violent behavior.

Favorable attitudes toward the problem behavior:  In elementary school, kids express anti-drug, anti-crime, pro-social attitudes.  In middle school, as others they know participate in such activities, their attitudes often shift toward greater acceptance of these behaviors.

Early initiation of the problem behavior:  The earlier a problem begins, the more easily it becomes entrenched, and the more difficult it becomes to resolve.  For example, research shows that any use of alcohol before the age of 15 places that youngster at twice the risk of having drug problems as those who wait until after the age of 19.

Constitutional factors:  These factors may have a physiological or biological base, i.e., fetal alcohol effects, head trauma, attention deficit or hyperactivity disorder, etc.  These factors are often seen in young people with sensation seeking, risk-taking behaviors and a lack of impulse control.

 

PROTECTIVE FACTORS

Understanding and identifying risk factors helps communities understand what they should do to prevent problem behavior. Protective factors hold the key to understanding how to reduce those risks and how to encourage positive behavior and social development.

Research has also identified protective factors that can buffer young people from risks and promote positive youth development. Protective factors include:

Individual Characteristics

Some children, from birth, have characteristics that help protect them against problems as they grow older, even if they are exposed to risk:

Gender

Given equal exposure to risks, research shows that girls are less likely to develop health and behavior problems in adolescence than boys.

Resilient temperament

Children who adjust to change or recover from disruption easily are more protected from risk.

Outgoing temperament

Children who are outgoing, enjoy being with people and engage easily with others are more protected.

Intelligence

Bright children appear to be protected from risk. However, intelligence does not protect children from substance abuse.

 

Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards

Parents, teachers and community members who hold clearly stated expectations regarding children and young people's behavior are helping to protect young people from risk. Parents who develop and reinforce clear family rules about drug use, school attendance and performance, sexual behavior, and behavior in the family and the community, are creating a buffer for their children as they move into the high–risk adolescent years. When family rules and expectations are consistent with and supported by other key influences on young peopleschool, peers, the media, the larger community–it is as though a protective shield is erected around the young person that buffers her from risk.

Bonding

One of the most effective ways to reduce children's risks of developing problem behaviors is to strengthen their bonds with family members, teachers and other socially responsible adults. Research shows that children living in high-risk environments can be protected from behavior problems by a strong, affectionate relationship with an adult who cares about and is committed to their healthy development. That adult can be a parent, a teacher, an extended family member, a coach, an employer, an adult from the child's faith community-any Garing adult. The most critical aspect of this relationship is that the youth has a long-term investment in the relationship, that he believes that the relationship is worth protecting. This investment is what motivates young people to abide by the healthy beliefs and clear standards held by these important adults in their lives.

 

 

Protective Processes

Research has also identified three protective processes that build strong bonds between young people and the significant adults in their lives:

Opportunities for involvement

Strong bonds are built when young people have opportunities to be involved in their families, schools and communities–to make a real contribution and feel valued for it.

Skills for successful involvement

In order for young people to take advantage of the opportunities provided in their families, schools and communities, they must have the skills to be successful in that involvement. These skills may be social skills, academic skills or behavioral skills.

Recognition for involvement

If we want young people to continue to contribute in meaningful ways, they must be recognized for their involvement.